Summary
- Q1 2024 has shown a 4.5% increase in year-over-year sales
- Import vehicles have had a massive surge in sales, with Hyundai, KIA, and Toyota all being the major winners
- Domestic vehicles have stayed pretty level, with only Ford making any real headway
- Hybrids are the trend that consumers are wanting: Reliability and familiarity of gas power, fuel savings of electric power
- Import EVs are seeing good sales as they are high quality and in demand, riding on the coattails of the hybrid demand
- We think that any manufacturer that has a “full spread” of pure gas, PHEV/HEV, and EV offerings is looking to have a stellar 2024
The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a small surge in new vehicle sales across the United States year-over-year to the tune of about 4.5%, underscoring the industry’s resilience as it is still feeling the lingering effects of the global pandemic.
Some brands experienced minor dips, but most brands have shown significant upticks in both deliveries as well as production numbers.
Major Wins For Import Vehicles
South Korea
While preliminary data paints a picture of remarkable growth in new vehicle sales throughout the first quarter of 2024 for imports, it is the South Korean partnered brands of Hyundai and KIA that have come out with top honors.
From January to March 2024, Hyundai moved 184,804 units to the US, which is a 0.2% increase over Q1 2023. While that may not sound like much, that is the best Q1 that Hyundai has had in the US, ever.
This was propped up by the single best month that Hyundai has had in their history in March 2024, selling 76,920 units in those 31 days alone. That number represents a full 2% increase YOY against March 2023, which in the world of import vehicles is a significant jump.
KIA also had a stellar Q1 2024, recording their second-highest US import sales quarter in company history. Q1 2023 was their best ever quarter, and Q1 2024 fell only 2.5% to 179,621 units.
This was supported by a very strong March 2024 movement of 69,472 units to US shores, which is another roughly 2% drop from March 2023.
Japan
For the Japanese brands, the big winner was Toyota, with Q1 2024 sales of 565,098 units. They also had one of their strongest March sales-by-volume months ever, at 214,894 units, a 21.8% increase in volume and daily selling rate versus March 2023.
A point to keep in mind about Toyota’s quarterly reports is that they do include the Lexus luxury brands as Toyota-labelled sales.
The other major Japanese brand, Honda, moved roughly 335,000 units to US shores in Q1 2024, although their final March numbers are not yet available. This is a projected 18% increase YOY against Q1 2023, showing a major recovery.
Domestic Sales Levelling Off
North American brands, in comparison to the import brands, are showing some signs of level sales, without much variance up or down outside of a few percentage points.
March 2024 numbers are still being reported, but on projections found from Edmunds via Global Newswire, GM is projected to be down 0.7% Q1 YOY, while Ford is projected to gain 6.5% Q1 YOY.
The marked loss in Q1 2024 has, surprisingly, been Tesla.
While they are keeping up a very strong production, coming in at 433,371 units over Q1, their total sales have fallen steeply. Q1 2024 deliveries came in at 386,810 units, which is a gigantic 8.5% decrease in YOY comparison to 2023.
This resulted not only in less overall sales, but for those that invest in the markets, Tesla’s share prices plummeted 7% on April 1, and have recovered only 2% by opening April 2, 2024.
This can be attributed to the marked decline in EV interest we’ve discussed before on GoodCarBadCar, as consumers are wanting the reliability of gas and the fuel savings of EV combined and buying hybrids.
Factors For Sales Successes & Failures
Import EVs
While this may sound a touch ridiculous to say a sentence after stating there is a loss of interest in EVs, the reason the import market saw such massive increases in sales is because of EVs.
KIA’s EV9 eSUV won two awards in the World Car Awards at the New York International Auto Show, the very valuable titles of World Car Of The Year and World Electric Vehicle Of The Year. This garnered major interest and saw an average 61 EV9’s leave dealerships daily in March 2024 for total sales of 1,281 units.
As well, since KIA’s K4 sedan is coming in mid-2024, models of its predecessor, the KIA Forte, are being sold at discount rates for both MSRP and interest rates, to make room for the new car. Give a consumer a good deal, and they are very likely to buy, especially with a proven, reliable import car that is great on gas and strong consumer ratings.
Hyundai, KIA’s parent company, also saw a marked increase in their EV sales YOY as well, with 18% YOY sales of the Ioniq 5 CUV (6,822 units Q1 2024) and a deceptive 1,542% YOY sales of the Ioniq 6 family sedan(3,646 units Q1 2024).
The Ioniq 6 number is deceptive as that EV was introduced in March 2023, selling only 222 units at that time. March 2024 saw 1,984 units sold, for a 794% increase YOY.
Hybrids On The Rise Overall
Every brand that sells a hybrid, which is pretty much every single one on sale in the USA, has seen marked increases in hybrid sales. This is what bolstered KIA and Hyundai to record setting Q1 numbers, as both companies have moved heavily into PHEV and HEV technology, with their only real competitor in terms of that tech being Toyota.
GM, Ford, Dodge, Jeep… all domestic brands that have a HEV or PHEV have also seen those models have a sudden turnaround in sales. Instead of being once every 10 or so sales, cars, SUVs, even full size trucks with hybrid units are now the bulk of the sales on the domestic market.
Global Supply Chain Issues
Weird as it is to make this analysis, the truth is that sales could have been much higher in Q1 2024 for almost every brand, save for the fact that the global supply chain is still in a period of recovery.
The biggest hit is still the semiconductor shortage, as the automotive sector only takes up about 10% of the demand for processors. Wireless and computing take up well over 60% of the demand, and as any supply chain manager knows, you move the supply to the area of highest demand to gain the best returns in a shorter time period.
The supply chain is also still working on a “Just In Time” model of delivery, sometimes with parts arriving at the production line hours or even minutes before the car they are going on reach the point of production to accept those parts.
However, as the the supply chain is much more robust than in 2021, 2022, or even 2023, prices overall for hybrids, regular gas powered cars, and even EVs have tumbled down from peak pandemic pricing.
Overall Analysis & 2024 Trend
The first quarter of 2024 has shown that this might be a record setting year. Sales are up for imports, domestics are holding steady or increasing slightly, and the only real downturn overall is in the EV market.
We think that any manufacturer offering a strong lineup of PHEV and HEV vehicles, as well as “Good, cheap, reliable” EVs is set to reap the rewards of both the economy’s and automotive industry’s continued recovery and growth since 2020’s shutdowns.
As Hyundai and KIA have both shown, there is still a market for EVs, but unlike Tesla, they also understand that there is a massive market for hybrids. That is the big trend to follow in 2024 and into 2025, as consumers are accepting EV solutions… just not full EV’s quite yet.
